LONDON (MNI) – Below is a survey of analysts’ forecasts for the UK
data due out on Tuesday, January 25, the first estimate of fourth
quarter GDP data and the December public finances.
The public finance forecasts are for public sector net borrowing
(PSNB), public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions
(PSNBX) and the public sector net cash requirement (PSNCR).
The GDP forecasts, for the first estimate of Q4, highlight the
uncertainty over the impact of bad weather and the extent of the
slowdown. Analysts’ forecasts range from flat on the quarter to up 0.6%,
compared with up 0.7% on the quarter in Q3.
All the data will be published at 0930 GMT.
!Q4 ! Q4 ! ! ! !
!GDP ! GDP ! Dec ! Dec ! Dec !
!1st ! 1st ! PSNB ! PSNBX ! PSNCR !
!Est. ! Est. ! stg ! stg ! stg !
!% ch ! % ch ! bln ! bln ! bln !
————————————————————————
Median forecast 0.4 2.6 18.1 20.6 17.0
High forecast 0.6 2.9 22.3 21.0 26.2
Low forecast 0.0 2.4 15.1 18.9 15.0
Previous period 0.7 2.7 22.8 23.3 16.8
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Number responses 17 14 10 5 7
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ABN Amro 0.6 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Barclays Capital 0.5 2.7 18.1 20.6 18.4
BNP Paribas 0.3 2.4 16.0 n/a 16.3
BoA-ML 0.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capital Economics 0.4 2.6 n/a 21.0 17.0
Citi 0.5 2.7 19.2 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 0.5 2.6 n/a n/a n/a
Credit Suisse 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Deutsche 0.6 2.8 n/a 20.0 15.0
Global Insight 0.4 2.6 20.0 n/a n/a
Investec 0.3 2.5 20.8 21.0 n/a
JP Morgan 0.1 2.3 15.1 n/a n/a
Lloyds TSB 0.3 2.5 18.1 18.9 n/a
Nomura 0.4 2.6 22.3 n/a 26.2
Soc. Generale 0.4 2.6 n/a n/a 15.5
Standard Chartered 0.5 2.9 16.0 n/a n/a
UBS 0.6 2.9 18.0 n/a 17.0
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7 862 7491
or e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
