UK DATA: Oct global goods deficit Stg8.529bn vs Stg8.392bn in Sep
–Oct global goods/services deficit Stg3.946bn vs Stg3.79bn in Sep
–Oct global goods deficit ex oil/erratics Stg8.189bn vs Stg6.856bn Sep
–Oct global goods deficit median forecast Stg8.2bn; total Stg4.5bn
The global goods deficit widened slightly in Oct to Stg8.5bn, a
little higher than the median of Stg8.2bn. The total deficit which
includes services also widened slightly although was below the median of
Stg4.5bn. Beneath the headline data, though, the real story here is a
sharp widening in the underlying trade gap ex oil and erratics which hit
Stg8.189bn the highest since records began as imports surged 5.4% and
exports rose just 0.3%. This goes somewhat against the arguments that
the economy is rebalancing towards higher exports. The real caveat here,
though is that the data are very erratic making it very difficult to
gauge the underlying trend.