A preview of UK retails sales data due on Thursday 19 July 2018

Just a couple of quick snippets via …

Barclays

  • expect retail sales to fall back -1.7%m/m in June, giving back some of the strength seen in the previous two months
  • That would bring the annual pace down to 1.6%y/y, back in line with its 12 month average

TD

  • After two months of "1-handles" there are wide two-way risks around retail sales this month.
  • On the downside, the level of sales could normalise, especially after one-off royal wedding effects
  • On the upside, more sunshine, warm weather, and World Cup should be supportive.
  • Our base case 0.4% forecast leaves a very strong trend for Q2 sales, and a solid hand-off to Q3.