UK December trade data now out 9 Feb

  • GBP - 12.456bln prev revised down from -12.231bln
  • trade non-EU GBP - 5.178bln vs -4.05bln exp vs -4.51bln prev rev up from -4.675bln
  • trade balance GBP- 4.896bln vs -2.4bln exp vs -3.652bln rev down from -2.804bln

ONS says the data puts 0.7% drag on Q4 2017 GDP all else being equal.

Another soggy trade balance report despite the firmer pound ( UK is a net importer so we should be seeing some ccy-assisted improvement in theory if the economy overall is improving)

Large increases in fuels import prices along with decreases in fuels export volumes had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit in the three months to December 2017.

Energy price inflation understandably remains a concern but higher pound should help negate.. Mixed production data but not a major impact on GDP.

Says the ONS on latest trade data:

  • The total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion in the three months to December 2017; excluding erratic commodities, the deficit widened by £1.5 billion to £9.0 billion.

  • The £3.8 billion widening of the total trade (goods and services) deficit was due to a £3.3 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit and a £0.5 billion narrowing of the trade in services surplus; the trade deficit in fuels (oil) had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit.

  • The widening of the trade in goods deficit was due mainly to a 3.8% (£2.1 billion) increase in imports from non-EU countries, alongside decreases in exports to the EU, in the three months to December 2017

  • revisions to the total trade balance (goods and services) are mainly downward from January 2017 to November 2017, due mostly to downward revisions to goods and services exports alongside upward revisions to services imports

Full report here