UK election exit poll shows a much result for the Conservatives than anyone though
Here's a background on the UK exit poll (the one showing a bid win for the Conservatives):
Indeed, election night forecasts from the BBC and ITN have historically been subject to wide margins of error. According to data collected by Clive Payne at Oxford University, the margin between Labour and the Conservatives projected at 10 p.m. (when the polls closed) was off by an average of 39 seats from 1974 to 1997.
More here at the website of Nate Silver
And:
Since 2001, the exit poll results have been fairly accurate, thanks to a new technique instituted by a team of academics. (You can read more about that technique, but suffice it to say that it has a lot of moving parts, including data down to the polling station level that is then modeled across the country.) Instead of an average error of 39 seats, it's been only seven seats.
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Meanwhile, in the currency market ....
Cable to a new high and a drift off since:
