London, Feb 28 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
All times in GMT/ET format. * = prior day ET.
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Tuesday, Feb 28
1100/0600 UK Feb CBI Quarterly/Monthly Retail Trades Survey
Prior Median
1100/0600 UK Feb CBI Monthly Reported Sales Balance -22 -12
1100/0600 UK Feb CBI Monthly Expected Sales Balance -10
The official data showed January retail sales volume growth was
remarkably strong, up 0.9% on the month, following equally robust
turnover growth in December. These data are the first snapshot of
whether growth fell back in February,
Despite some improvement in real income as inflation falls back,
the January growth rate looks unsustainable. Bank of England Monetary
Policy Committee member Adam Posen said recently that fundamentals did
not support sustained consumption growth.
“Retail sales in the month of January were extremely robust. God
knows why … but part of my world view is I never care about one
month’s data,” he said at the Warwick Economics Summit.
2110/1610 BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speech to Society of
Business Economists
Tucker has been one of the more hawkish members of the Monetary
Policy Committee, without breaking ranks.
He was among those who came close to backing a rate hike in early
2011, saying the decision was “finely balanced”, and he is widely
believed to be among the MPC members who have been questioning whether
inflation will get back to target and whether more quantitative easing
is needed.
Nevertheless, he voted for the stg50 billion of further QE in
February, and aside from concerns over inflation expectations, he has
not set out any position clearly out of step with consensus.
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Wednesday, Feb 29
Prior Median
0001/1901* UK Feb GfK Consumer Confidence Index -29 -27
Consumer confidence has been low, but the GfK survey showed a
pick-up in January, rising to -29, its highest level since last June.
As the series’ long run average is -8 confidence is still very weak
by historic standards, but analysts expect a further modest improvement
in February, against a backdrop of increasing economic activity.
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE Lending to Individuals
Jan BOE Mortgage Approvals (000s) 52.9 54.0
Jan BOE Net Secured Lending (Stg bln) 0.7 0.8
Jan BOE Net Consumer Credit (Stg bln) -0.4 0.2
Housing market surveys have found evidence of a pick-up in activity
ahead of the March expiry of the stamp duty (property transaction tax)
holiday.
A rise in mortgage approvals is expected. The key question is
whether this turns out to be activity being brought forward, with demand
falling away in April unless the government provides further support in
the March Budget.
0930/0430 Jan BOE Bankstats
Net overseas holdings of Gilts plunged by Stg10.663 billion in
December, having risen sharply in October and November, the first two
months of the second wave of quantitative easing.
The Gilt holdings data are contained in the Bankstats release, and
these will shed light on whether the previously huge overseas appetite
for Gilts is now waning.
0945/0445 BOE MPC King, Bean, Tucker, Posen at Treasury
Committee Inflation Report Hearing
0945/0445 BOE MPC Bean, Tucker, Posen publish Treasury Select
Committee annual reports
The February Monetary Policy Committee minutes showed divisions
among members, and this TSC hearing should illuminate the differences
of view.
The central projection in the February Inflation Report was for
inflation to undershoot target, albeit marginally, two and three years
ahead, but this was not a consensus forecast and there were differences
of view on the case for more quantitative easing at the Feb meeting.
“For some members, the probability of inflation exceeding the
target was slightly higher than shown in the projection … and a case
could be made for maintaining the stance of policy,” the minutes said.
1830/1330 UK BOE MPC’s Martin Weale Speaks at Cass
Business School on Consumer Spending
Weale was one of the MPC members who broke ranks and voted for a
hike back in early 2011. He is one of the more hawkish members, but has
not sounded upbeat on the consumption outlook – the subject of his
speech here.
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Thursday, March 1
Prior
0700/0200 Feb Nationwide House Prices
Feb Nationwide House Prices (m/m %) -0.2
Feb Nationwide House Prices (y/y %) 0.6
House prices fell unexpectedly on the month in this series, but
with activity and asking prices rising ahead of the expiration in March
of the stamp duty holiday, a stronger outturn looks likely in February.
Prior Median
0928/0428 UK Feb Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 52.1 51.9
Manufacturing made a strong start to 2012, but analysts expect the
pace of expansion to ease a little in February.
1000/0500 UK BOE MPC David Miles speech at
pro.manchester Business Conference
Miles was one of the two MPC members who called for a larger, stg75
billion, quantitative easing increase in February and said in a CNBC
interview the UK economy was still in a “precarious” state and policy
should stay very expansionary.
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Friday, March 2
Prior
0930/0430 UK Feb Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 51.4
The construction sector looks set to expand in Q1, and the handful
of analysts who forecast this CIPS index all expect another reading
comfortably above the 50 expansion/contraction level.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
