Ryan posted on the UK CPI data - it's a great post if you are trading cable or any GBP crosses, check it out:
"... first negative inflation since records began in 1996 (under EU methodology) and the first time since 1960 under comparable estimates ... (will we) see a snap back next month" ?
Via Goldman Sachs, their updated forecasts for CPI now:
- For May, forecast is +0.2% y/y
- For subsequent months they are looking for inflation to stay around the 'zero neighbourhood'
- Bounce to 1% in Q1 2016
On deflation ... GS sees "risk of sustained deflation in the UK as low"
- "First, while underlying inflationary pressures in the UK are subdued, they are some way from being consistent with deflation: core inflation is still running at around 1% and wage inflation is gradually rising
- Second, and more generally, the cross-country evidence suggests that deflation is rare and difficult to generate among countries that set monetary policy independently"
