Latest data released by ONS - 11 September 2018
- Prior +2.4%
- Earnings ex-bonus +2.9% vs +2.8% 3m/y expected
- Prior +2.7%
- ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.0% expected
- Prior 4.0%
- Employment change 3k vs 10k expected
- Prior 42k
- August jobless claims change 8.7k vs 6.2k prior
- August claimant count rate 2.6% vs 2.5% prior
That's a good beat on wages data and certainly a welcome one for the UK economy as well as the BOE. The pound has edged a little higher on the report with cable jumping up to 1.3080 before settling just under it now from around 1.3060 levels.
The unemployment rate continues to hold at its lowest level since 1975 but the key point here is all about the beat in wages data. In July alone, wages came in at +3.1% y/y which represents the single biggest rise since July 2015 for ex-bonus and highest since December for the headline.
The release here should continue to keep the pound underpinned as the Brexit outlook also looks to be improving. But I don't expect the pound to rally too much from here unless further news from Brexit come about. We're in a relatively sensitive period for the pound and right now only Brexit headlines truly matter.
