Latest data released by ONS - 18 April 2019
- Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.6%
- Retail sales +6.7% vs +4.5% y/y expected
- Prior +4.0%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.2% vs -0.3% m/m expected
- Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +6.2% vs +4.0% y/y expected
- Prior +3.8%
Those are solid beats across the board and there's even positive revisions to go alongside them. ONS notes that mild weather boosted sales in March as food shops recovered following a weak February reading.
That said, it must be noted that the big year-on-year jump owes partly to the fact that last year we had prolonged cold weather during the same period (March 2018) so that explains the massive jump there.
Overall, consumption activity remains solid and this points to a decent Q1 for UK economic performance (also boosted by stockpiling). But as a whole, the pound remains largely dependent on Brexit sentiment so don't expect this to change that.
Cable jumps up slightly from 1.3010 levels to 1.3030 but it's hardly anything to get too excited about. There isn't much in the data here to really convince real money flows to go chasing a move higher beyond 1.3050 I reckon.
