Latest data released by ONS - 14 November 2019

  • Prior 0.0%
  • Retail sales +3.1% vs +3.7% y/y expected
  • Prior +3.1%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.2%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.7% vs +3.4% y/y expected
  • Prior +3.0%; revised to +2.9%

Poor figures all around as retail sales in the three months to a year in October was the weakest since October 2018. ONS notes that all main retail sectors saw sales fall in the month, other than department stores - which were helped by early Xmas sales.

If anything else, this just keeps up the potential for an increase in BOE easing bets over the coming months as economic data (jobs, inflation and consumption) all start to show signs of doubt as we head towards the end of the year.

Cable initially jumped up to a high of 1.2867 ahead of the release before settling around 1.2855 currently in the aftermath, still above its 200-hour moving average though.