UK GDP data for Q2 was out overnight, this is a look at some of the detail from Barclays (this in brief, bolding is mine):

Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q

  • but the expenditure breakdown shows a larger-than-expected slowdown in consumption to 0.1% q/q
  • while business investment was flat on the quarter as well as on the year.
  • Despite the downside surprise in consumption, we maintain our headline and breakdown forecasts. While we think latest numbers support our bleak forecasts for consumption, we think labour market resilience will still help avoid a consumption recession.

Regarding the other components of GDP,

  • we continue to forecast investment weakness in H2, driven by business investment, but some rebound next year;
  • we maintain our very cautious stance regarding net exports even though we expect the trade balance to show some improvement over the forecast horizon.
  • Finally, while government consumption should be neutral this year (neutral fiscal stance) we expect it to be a drag again next year unless the government radically changes its budget plans later this year.

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For more, Mike had the report here: UK Q2 GDP latest revision QQ 0.3% vs 0.3% exp