-Adds Median Forecast for July CIPS Construction To Friday’s Version
London, July 30 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
All times in GMT/ET format.
Prior Median
2301/1901 UK Jul GfK Consumer Confidence Index -29 -29
The survey will reflect optimism prior to the news of the
shockingly weak Q2 GDP data and another reading close to -30 is likely.
The GfK survey is normally conducted from the first Friday of the month
through to the second Sunday, and the GDP data weren’t published until
July 25.
The GfK index has held close to the -30 level for its past
12-monthly readings.
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Wednesday, Aug 1
Prior
0600/0200 UK Jul Nationwide House Prices
0600/0200 UK Jul Nationwide House Prices (%m/m) -0.6
0600/0200 UK Jul Nationwide House Prices (%y/y) -1.5
The Land Registry data, based on actual transactions, are
showing mild house price inflation but the mortgage based surveys,
such as the Nationwide, have shown mild deflation.
Geographic coverage and the exemption of cash transactions in
mortgage based surveys are factors in the discrepancies, but the big
picture in all of them is one in which house prices are declining in
real terms outside of (largely London area) property hotspots.
Prior Median
0830/0430 UK Jul Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI 48.6 48.0
The BOE MPC is given the details of the month’s trilogy of CIPS
releases ahead of its two day policy meeting.
With the official Q2 GDP data hit by Jubilee and weather effects,
the PMIs will provide the MPC with an alternative take on activity to
the official data.
The expectation is there will be little change from June, with
activity continuing to contract but not sharply, with a modest rebound
possible from the wet, Jubilee hit June data.
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Thursday, Aug 2
Prior Median
0830/0430 UK Jul Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 48.2 49.0
There is a striking disconnect between these numbers of the
official construction growth figures.
The official Q2 data showed construction was a key factor in the
sharp fall in GDP, with construction output plunging 5.2% on the quarter
and 7% between May and June. The CIPS data, however, have shown a far
more modest decline in construction.
Prior Median
1100/0700 UK Aug BOE Monthly Policy Decision
1100/0700 UK Aug BOE Base Rate 0.5 0.5
1100/0700 UK Aug BOE QE (Stg bln) 375 375
While the near consensus view is there will be no change of policy
the risks of further easing at this meeting are far from negligible.
The Monetary Policy Committee will have a fresh set of growth and
inflation forecasts, for the quarterly August Inflation Report, at this
meeting. Those forecasts will inevitably show sharply lower near term
growth and inflation than the MPC forecast back in May and are likely to
leave plenty of room for further stimulus.
If the MPC wants to spring a surprise it will have little problem
justifying it, but analysts view is it won’t move until November, when
it will have had more time to assess the likely impact of its raft of
credit easing initiatives.
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Friday, Aug 3
Prior Median
0828/0428 UK Jul Markit/CIPS Services PMI 51.3 51.5
The data for July will be accompanied by the composite PMI for the
month. The June services survey showed a sharp fall in service providers
expectations for the year ahead as the gloom over the economic outlook
mounted.
These surveys, however, provide an alternative snapshot of economic
activity rather than a reliable read across, in any straightforward way,
to the official data.
CIPS said its Q2 surveys suggested the quarterly growth rate had
slowed to near stagnation – but the official data were much worse,
showing a contraction of 0.7%.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
