–Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0830 GMT
–UK Q2 Chain GDP unrevised 0.2% q/q; up 0.7% y/y
–UK Q2 Ind. production down 1.6% q/q; manufacturing down 0.5%
–UK Q2 Services output up 0.5% q/q; up 1.2% y/y
LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy expanded by an unrevised 0.2% on the
quarter in the second quarter, with revisions to the industrial
production and services data offsetting each other.
Industrial production was revised to down to show a fall of 1.6% on
the quarter, knocking 0.03 percentage point off quarterly GDP. Service
sector output, while unrevised at up 0.5% on the quarter on the rounded
numbers, added 0.03 percentage point on the unrounded ones, National
Statistics said.
Analysts median forecast was for an unrevised 0.2% quarterly print,
but a minority had predicted a downward revision in light of the
weaker-than-expected industrial production data.
With NS unable to produce its usual income and expenditure figures
for this second GDP estimate, due to a system overhaul, these latest
growth data added little to the initial estimate.
National Statistics reaffirmed its view that one effects that hit
growth in the second quarter, including the extra Bank Holiday for the
Royal Wedding and the supply side disruptions from the Japanese
earthquake, had subtracted around 0.5 percentage point from quarterly
GDP growth.
NS warned, however, against “adding on” this growth – and some of
this may well not be recouped in Q3.
The data showed a plunge in mining and quarrying, with output here
falling 6.8% on the quarter, the largest quarterly fall since back in
2006, to stand down 14.5% on the year.
Industrial production was also hit by a sharp fall in output in the
utilities industries, with electricity, gas and water supply falling
2.8% on the quarter to stand down 2.7% on the year.
Manufacturing output was down 0.5% on the quarter and up 2.0% on
the year.
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s forecast, contained
in the August Inflation Report, showed the MPC believes National
Statistics data is underestimating the pace of UK growth.
The MPC’s implied forecast was for 0.3% quarterly growth in Q2. The
0.3% figure is the rate of growth the BOE believes is “true GDP” growth,
and is the figure NS should get to after it completes its long drawn out
revisions procedures.
–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
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