–Adds Comments From Candidates, Refreshes First-Round Estimates

PARIS (MNI) – As the polls had predicted, French voters on Sunday
ensured that incumbent president Nicolas Sarkozy will face off with
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in a run-off for the presidential
elections on May 6.

Preliminary estimates showed Hollande on top in the first round of
balloting with nearly 29% of the vote, leading Sarkozy with less than
27%. The result should give Hollande a tangible headstart in the
campaign for the second round. This is the first time an incumbent has
not been in lead position heading into the run-off.

Far right-wing National Front candidate Marine Le Pen surprised on
the upside with close to 20%, overshooting estimates in the latest polls
and the score of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen a decade ago, when he
qualified for the run-off against then-incumbent president Jacques
Chirac.

Total votes on the right of the political spectrum surpassed those
on the left by a few points. However, since only around 60% of the
supporters of Le Pen are expected to swing to Sarkozy in the second
round, the overall lead of the right may not suffice to tip the scales
in Sarkozy’s favor. Le Pen said she would reveal her choice on May 1.

The centrist candidate Francois Bayrou made a weak showing with
less than 9%. Pollsters reckon that a third of Bayrou’s electorate could
shift to Sarkozy in the run-off, another third to Hollande, with the
rest abstaining. Bayrou said he would consult the two candidates in the
coming days on the concerns of his electorate before announcing his
preference.

Hollande looks likely to attract more votes from the radical left
wing than Sarkozy from the extreme right. Four out of five of the
nearly 12% of voters who backed the Leftist Front candidate Jean-Luc
Melenchon are expected to back the Socialist, if only to prevent
Sarkozy’s re-election.

Moments after the initial results were announced by French media,
Melenchon called on his supporters to support Hollande unconditionally
in the second round. “Our people are clearly determined to turn the page
on Nicolas Sarkozy,” he declared. “Don’t ask anything in exchange – just
the act of your conscience.”

Further support for Hollande should come from the 2% voters who
favored the Green’s candidate Eva Joly.

Hollande welcomed the support of these two runners-up, but pledged
to be “the candidate of all the forces that want to turn the page” and
“reorient Europe toward the path of growth and employment.”

The challenge for Sarkozy during the next two weeks will be to
convince the centrist and right-wing electorate that a leftist coalition
of Socialists, Greens and Communists would bring disaster to the
country.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon reminded that the “debt crisis is
not over — we have no right to make mistakes.” In these troubled times
“we need a statesman” at the helm, he said, urging voters to back
Sarkozy.

Sarkozy’s initial reaction was peppered with code words for
conservative voters like “fatherland”, “security”, “immigration” and
“security”, which suggests he will focus first on mobilizing Le Pen’s
electorate to turn the tide. Confident of his rhetorical talent, he
demanded there be three televised debates with his adversary to allow a
“confrontation of programs.” Hollande prefers a single debate.

The challenge for Hollande will be to avoid any gaffes and keep his
potential voters mobilized after the first flush of victory.

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