US CPI is coming up next

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Light economic calendar otherwise

US core CPI
The US dollar is edging higher into the release of US CPI at the bottom of the hour. This is very likely to be a market moving report.

The number to focus on will be core CPI (above) because that's what the Fed is focused on. The consensus is +0.3% m/m. If it's hot, then expect a broad dollar bid on jitters about a strong Sept taper signal.

If it's weak, the dollar will slump across the board and particularly against commodity currencies and sterling.

Bank of America thinks it will be lower.

"Core CPI will likely moderate further in August to a 0.2% (0.15% unrounded) mom clip. .. We believe the two drivers of transitory inflation strength earlier this year, the goods shortages and reopening of the economy, have faded further this month."
A low reading would be more consequential than a high one, in my opinion, because it would signal a crest in inflation. That's what the Fed wants to see in order to buy itself more time before hiking.

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