US DATA: Chicago Fed annual Economic Outlook Symposium, held Nov 30, economic
outlook ests 2013 real GDP at a pace near its historical average, inflation
largely unchanged and unemployment rate down slightly. Consensus is real GDP
growth +1.7% in ’12 and +2.3% in ’13; CPI +2.0% this year and +2.1% in 2013;
unemployment rate 7.6% by the end of next year. “Consumer spending is predicted
to rise at a moderate pace next year.
The pace of business spending is expected to strengthen in 2013. The housing
sector is forecasted to improve at a faster pace next year. In particular, the
consensus outlook shows housing starts are expected to increase to 0.77 million
units this year and then rise further to 0.95 million units in 2013.” 10y Tsy
rate is est +32 bps.