I'm gonna become like a broken record on this ... the Federal Reserve is now 'data dependent' on the outlook for the first rate hike ('lift off'). So everyone says anyway. I'm of the opinion that they are now intent on raising rates as soon as they reasonably can, subject to the data being constructive.

Anyway ... with that in mind, its going to be important to watch the US (and global) economic data (pure technical analysts are excused from doing so, though).

I posted over the weekend on a few items to watch out for: Plenty of US data next week - note these in the diary for likely market impact

(Oh, and we're also getting a stack of Federal Reserve speakers and the Biege Book)

First important cab off the rank (Uber off the rank?) is Retail Sales for March, on Tuesday, due at 1230GMT (14 April 2015)

  • Reuters have the headline expected at +1.0% m/m (after prior of -0.6%)

Here are a few previews:

Credit Suisse:

  • Says to expect "a strong rebound in March retail sales
  • They forecast a +0.9% m/m result

RBC:

  • Say to "look for a firm +1.1% m/m rise in March retail sales
  • As the headwind from harsher-than-usual winter weather begins to unwind
  • The sharp rebound in auto sales is a testament to this
  • But even ex autos we expect a constructive 0.7% advance"

JP Morgan

  • Forecasting a strong +1.4%
  • Gains spread across the various major categories
  • We think the extremely cold weather in February likely depressed sales during the month and we expect activity to bounce back in March with the return of more seasonal temperatures
  • This pattern of a weak February followed by strength in March is already evident in data on unit auto sales that have been reported

BNP:

  • Forecast is at +1.0% m/m
  • After seasonal adjustment, retail gasoline prices likely increased in March and lifted gas station sales into positive month-on-month territory for the second time in 10 months
  • Auto sales were likely also impressive; unit auto sales increased over 5.5% in the month
  • We expect households to have spent savings on gasoline from prior months on other goods and services, boosting control group sales

Deutsche Bank:

  • Forecast +0.5% m/m