Don't go trading against a Fed hike just yet

I'm my post prior to the data I said the biggest risk was a miss. Now we've had that miss we need to judge how bad it was.

It wasn't bad. None of this data is likely to derail a hike. What it has done is shoot down some of those longer-term expectations I wrote about in the prior post because there isn't a booming consumer and there isn't runaway inflation.

CPI and core coming in at 1.5% and retail sales falling over 1.0% might put off a hike, this doesn't

So now the trade is looking for how far the short-term players want to push this bad news. 113.00/112.90 is what they'll need to break to bring a real move south but we're not coming close in this phase.