US DATA: Econ at Deutsche Bank project +150k for Nov NFP in both
nonfarm and private payrolls and flat public sector hiring. They note
concerns about hiring by state and local govts could be a big depressant
on the economy going forward. But, they are sanguine the cuts will not
be as large as many analysts fear and believe the cuts may actually be
near a bottom due to improved state revenues. They add private could be
bolstered owning to solid PMI reports, mild declines in initial jobless
claims and the firming in employee tax receipts. They look for a 0.2%
drop in the unemployment rate due to the fact that the covered
unemployment rate, measured as the sum of continuing claimants and
emergency/extended benefits as a share of eligible recipients, continues
to trend downward.