WASHINGTON (MNI) – Below are the updated Federal Open Market
Committee projections of major economic indicators published Wednesday,
for the first time, separate from the FOMC minutes:
Release for: April 2011
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Data in Percent
Central Tendency (1)
2011 2012 2013 Longer Run
Change in real GDP 3.1 to 3.3 3.5 to 4.2 3.5 to 4.3 2.5 to 2.8
Jan. projection 3.4 to 3.9 3.5 to 4.4 3.7 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8
—
Unemployment rate 8.4 to 8.7 7.6 to 7.9 6.8 to 7.2 5.2 to 5.6
Jan. projection 8.8 to 9.0 7.6 to 8.1 6.8 to 7.2 5.0 to 6.0
—
PCE inflation 2.1 to 2.8 1.2 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
Jan. projection 1.3 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0
—
Core PCE inflation 1.3 to 1.6 1.3 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 —
Jan. projection 1.0 to 1.3 1.0 to 1.5 1.2 to 2.0 —
————————————————————————
Range (2)
2011 2012 2013 Longer Run
Change in real GDP 2.9 to 3.7 2.9 to 4.4 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
Jan. projection 3.2 to 4.2 3.4 to 4.5 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
—
Unemployment rate 8.1 to 8.9 7.1 to 8.4 6.0 to 8.4 5.0 to 6.0
Jan. projection 8.4 to 9.0 7.2 to 8.4 6.0 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.2
—
PCE inflation 2.0 to 3.6 1.0 to 2.8 1.2 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.0
Jan. projection 1.0 to 2.0 0.7 to 2.2 0.6 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0
—
Core PCE inflation 1.1 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 —
Jan. projection 0.7 to 1.8 0.6 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 —
—
NOTE: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP)
and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the
fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE
inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price
index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index
for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate
are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of
the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or
her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections
represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each
variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy
and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The November
projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal
Open Market Committee on November 3-4, 2009.
1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest
projections for each variable in each year.
2. The range for a variable in a given year consists of all
participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in
that year.
3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
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