US DATA: Nov MNI Chicago Report 50.4 vs 49.9 Oct. Components looked strong as
Production +2.9 to 54.7, Employment +4.9 to 55.2, Supplier Deliveries +6.9 to
57.3, the longest since Mar’12, and Prices Paid +10.8 to 70.1, the highest since
Aug’11. But the Biz Barometer hovers above neutral after two months in
contraction, and its 3 mo MA of 50.1 suggests a teetering economy. The 5.3 drop
in New Orders to a contractionary 45.3 hurt confidence for a recovery. Also,
Order Backlogs remained in contraction for a 4th mo despite a 5.3 gain to 49.6.
Inventories, now down in 12 of the last 14 mos, moved deeper into contraction,
-2.5 to 47.1, its lowest level since Feb10. Buying Policies also provided
further evidence of a tenuous economy — lead times to source Production
Materiel -9.8 days to 27.4 days, shortest since Feb’10, MRO Supplies -5.5 days
to 8.4 days, shortest since Jan’11 and lead times for purchasing Cap Equip +2.9
days to 106.6.