–Hurricane Isaac Could Still Have Residual Impact But Unlikely

By Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to have
risen slightly last week, and while the effects of the well-publicized
teacher strike in Chicago will probably not show up until next week’s
data, September 3’s Labor Day holiday could cause some seasonal
adjustment issues.

The Chicago Teachers Union Sunday Sept. 9 announced that more than
29,000 teachers and education professionals would not report to work
Monday, and as of Wednesday the strike is still ongoing.

However, Thursday’s jobless claims report by the Labor Department
will be for the week-ending September 8 and will not capture the
striking teachers. Instead, claims filed by teachers will be reflected
in next week’s report.

Illinois in general does not pay out benefits to workers who are on
strike, but the jobless claims report counts claims as opposed to
benefits paid. In addition, support staff who rely on the schools for
employment, such as bus drivers and janitors could be eligible for
benefits.

While the strike will not impact this week’s claims, the Labor Day
holiday will. Seasonal factors published by the Labor Department
indicate seasonal factors are anticipating a 7.7% decline in unadjusted
claims.

Tomorrow’s report will be for the 37th week of 2012 and during the
37th week in 2011 unadjusted claims fell by 5.7%; in 2010 they fell by
10.5% and 11.8% in 2009. In 2008 unadjusted claims rose by 13.6% and in
2007 they rose by 6.7%.

Holiday weekends tend to reduce the number of unadjusted claims
filed because there is one less day to file and the seasonal adjustment
attempts to capture that.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by MNI is for claims to
rise to 370,000 in the Sept. 8 week. This would be consistent with the
claims data in August — which hovered around 370,000 with the 4-week
moving average sitting at 371,250 as of last week’s report.

There is still the possibility that hurricane Isaac, which touched
ground in the U.S. two weeks ago, could be reflected Thursday’s report,
but a Labor Department analyst last week said there was no indication
that the storm had impacted the claims data as of the week ending
September 1.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]