Due on 21 February 2019 at 1330GMT for the US
Previews via …
Natwest;
- We estimate that new orders for durable goods rose 2.0% in December. A sharp increase in bookings by Boeing accounts for the bulk of our expected increase. We expect little change in most of the other categories.
- We look for a 0.3% rise in core capital goods orders (i.e. nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft). A realization of our forecast would leave core capital goods orders for the fourth quarter as a whole with an annualized decline of around 1%, versus an 8% increase in Q3.
CIBC:
- Core capital goods orders have failed to advance since the late summer months, an indication that any bump in investment from tax reform is long gone. Moreover, capital goods imports have failed to make material gains recently, reinforcing the notion that softer domestic demand is holding business investment back.
- Machinery equipment orders could have risen in line with mining production, suggesting that ex-transportation orders were 0.1% higher on the month. Robust aircraft orders could have supported a 0.8% advance in headline durable orders.
- We are below consensus which would be negative for the USD and see yields fall.
BMO;
- Durable goods orders are expected to jump 1.0% in December, propelled by Boeing's bookings. Allowing for some braking in motor vehicle-related sales, total transportation orders likely rose 2.2%, though a lesser 0.4% excluding transportation.
- Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft should rise 0.5%, supported by late-cycle capacity constraints and the drive to automate. However, there is little doubt that capex has downshifted in the face of trade and policy uncertainty. After growing at a 16.1% annualized rate in the four months to July due to tax reforms, the next four months saw core capital goods orders contract 2.6% annualized. Business investment is still expanding, though at a more moderate pace than earlier last year.
