The first revision for Q2 GDP is out at 12.30 GMT

Yes it's history but the it's still a big deal as far as trading is concerned.

Personally I don't know why they bother with the first release as most of the data is missing anyway but I digress. Q2 GDP is expected to rise to 3.2% annually from the initial 2.3% estimate and the market players are gearing up for what it will mean

Credit Agricole say that the latest data, such as business inventories, will help confirm the estimations and will enable the Fed to raise rates this year. From that they see limited downside for the dollar

BNP see a slightly higher GDP print at 3.4% and say the data is important for keeping the dollar rally going. They've taken Dudley's comments yesterday to all but rule out a Sep hike

The WSJ point out 4 things to look for in the numbers;

  1. Inventories - Commerce initially reported the change in real private inventories subtracted from GDP, but now economists expect a significant and possibly unsustainable boost. That could mean inventories will be a drag in the current quarter
  2. Real final sales - GDP minus change in private inventories-may offer a better picture of underlying growth. The figure basically measures how much American-made stuff people and companies bought at home and abroad. If we see 3.3% growth but that's because of unexpectedly large inventories, look for downward revisions for the third quarter
  3. Construction - Has been revised up in April and May and June stands at the highest for 7 years
  4. Consumer spending - Retail sales figures used to calculate GDP have since been revised up, offering another possible boost and a potential sign of momentum for the economy. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output in the U.S

The importance of the data, despite being behind the times, is echoed by senior OptionsClick analyst Jason Collins who says;

"While the data may be for time past, it's potentially a big step for removing more of the recent violent volatility that has affected markets and perceptions of Fed liftoff. The more the US data comes out in line with the recent trend, the quicker the market will put this week's moves behind it. Volatility will remain elevated as players come back from the summer and assess the upcoming events, while liquidity will increase to provide better opportunities for trading"

So all eyes on the US this afternoon. Let's see if the data changes the tone for Fed watchers once again