WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the commentary from the
ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot released Tuesday:

As in years past, consumers once again took a break from shopping
the week before Thanksgiving as they are awaiting and anticipating Black
Friday promotions across retail categories. As a result, for the week
ending November 17, weekly retail sales slipped slightly by 0.3%,
according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and
Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. However, on a
year-over-year basis, the pace of retail sales improved and rose to a
2.5% pace.

“Sales slowed sequentially ahead of the Black Friday bargain
bonanza that retailers have in store for consumers this year” said
Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist.
“As usual, consumers are geared for these promotions and are eagerly
awaiting Black Friday’s arrival, which should help lift overall sales
for the month,” Niemira added.

For November, ICSC research anticipates that the sales will rise by
4.5% to 5.5% (excluding drug stores) as some holiday and replacement
demand will begin to kick in later in the month.

—

The ICSC]Goldman Sachs chain store sales index for the week ending
November 17 dipped by 0.3% from the prior week as the sequential pace
slowed from a post]hurricane Sandy restocking impact in the prior week.
The ICSC-GS consumer tracking survey found weaker customer traffic over
the past week at discounters, while traffic was stronger at apparel
stores. The weakness at discount stores may be associated with the
“postponing effect” that has started to show up ahead of Black Friday
week when consumers are more reticent to purchase before the Black
Friday bargain days. On the other hand, cooler temperatures nationwide
seemingly helped lift the need for seasonal apparel. The ICSC-GS holiday
survey found that the average holiday gift completion rate (of the 53%
of consumer that already started to shop) was running above last year,
but more people have not started than last year. The latest consumer
holiday tracking survey by ICSC and Goldman Sachs (GS) found that about
half (51%) of consumers plan to be shopping between Thursday
(Thanksgiving Day) and Sunday with 17% of consumers planning to take
advantage of those Thanksgiving hours to shop, one-third of consumers
planning to shop on Black Friday and a third (32%) planning to shop on
Saturday and/or Sunday. Previous year’s Black Friday intention surveys
suggested 34% of consumers planned to shop on Black Friday 2011, 31%
planned to shop in 2010 and 26% reported they planned to shop on that
day in 2009. The 2012 survey is relatively steady with 2011’s survey.
Only 3% of consumers plan to shop only on Thanksgiving Day evening, most
are adding that onto their other shopping days. The main reason cited by
one]third of consumers planning to shop on Thanksgiving Day was that it
would be an earlier opportunity to find those bargains. Of those
planning to shop on that Friday, 58% cited their chief reason was to buy
bargain-priced holiday gifts, while 30% cited bargains for themselves
or family, but not necessarily holiday gifts. Thirteen percent of
consumers planning to be shopping on Black Friday were motivated by the
energy of the crowds and planned to be window shoppers taking in the
experience.

November Sales Expectations

U.S. comparable]chain]store sales for October posted a healthy
+5.0% gain as measured on a year-over-year basis by ICSC Research’s
tally of 22 major retail chain stores excluding the drug store sector.
With a drag of 2.7 percentage points from the Walgreen’s reporting
anomaly, total chain-store sales (inclusive of drug stores) rose by
2.3% in October compared with a 0.9% gain in September from the same
month of the prior year. Looking ahead to November, ICSC Research
anticipates that comparable-store sales growth will grow between 4.5%
and 5.5% excluding drug stores or about 2.5 percentage points lower
including drug stores (that is, 2.0% to 3.0%). November sales will be
quite uneven by week with store business depressed early in the month
due to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, but holiday and
hurricane]replacement demand will likely kick in strongly late in the
month.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDT$,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]