WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the commentary from the
ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot released Tuesday:

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs (ICSC-GS) weekly chain store sales index for
the week ending July 14 was unchanged from the prior week, but sales
held onto the prior weekfs hefty gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales
moderated a tad to 2.6% for the latest week from 3.0% in the prior
period. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs consumer tracking survey found that
despite the lingering hot summer weather about one]third of all
households that will buy back-to-school merchandise have already begun
to shop — though the lion’s share of those purchases are expected to be
made in August.

According to Weather Trends, Inc. (WTI) the U.S. average
temperature was 0.9F warmer than last year and 2.7F above normal. WTI
observed that, “heat surged in the West where temperatures were much
warmer than last year, increasing demand for hot weather categories.”
According to the ICSC-GS consumer tracking survey, apparel and
department stores saw a pickup customer traffic this past week.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices posted their second consecutive increase as
the summer driving pressures again pulled up prices. The average price
of a gallon of regular]grade gasoline rose by 1.6 cents to $3.427 on
July 16, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Although prices were up 7.1 cents over the past two weeks, the price of
regular-grade gasoline fell by 6.9% in the latest week compared to the
same week of the prior year, which was its 13th consecutive
year-over-year price drop.

The upcoming states tax holidays for back-to-school purchases are:
Alabama (August 3-5); Arkansas (August 4-5); Connecticut (August 19-25);
Florida (August 3-5); Georgia (August 10-11); Iowa (August 3-4);
Louisiana (August 3-4); Maryland (August 12-18); Mississippi (July
27-28); Missouri (August 3-5); New Mexico (August 3-5); North Carolina
(August 3-5); Oklahoma (August 3-5); South Carolina (August 3-5);
Tennessee (August 3-5); Texas (August 17-19); and Virginia (August 3-5).

July Sales Expectations

U.S. comparable-chain-store sales for June rose by a meager 0.2% —
as measured on a year-over-year basis by ICSC Research’s tally of 23
major retail chain stores. Industry sales continue to be dragged down by
Walgreen’s decision to no longer be part of the Express Scripts, Inc.
pharmacy network, which pulled down its comparable-store prescription
results by 10.7 percentage points on a year-over-year basis. Excluding
the entire drug store sector, chain-store sales rose by 2.6% in June
compared with the same month of the prior year. The non]drug store
performance is more representative of the underlying trend and compared
with a 4.0% year-over-year increase in May and a 4.5% fiscal
year-to-date performance. Looking ahead to July sales reports (August 2,
2012 reporting), ICSC Research forecasts an industry comparable-store
sales gain of between 1.0% and 1.5% and, excluding drug stores, sales
are expected to increase by between 3.0% and 3.5%.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDT$,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]