–Labor Analyst Says Indeterminate Period Continues
–Seasonals Expected NSA Claims To Drop 45K But Instead Dropped 19K

By Denny Gulino and Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits rose by 25,000 after seasonal adjustment in the Feb. 12 week,
continuing the latest period of stubborn indeterminacy in an otherwise
improving trend, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

A Labor Department analyst distinguished between the typical path
this time of year of gradual improvement and the performance of the
recovery which has been hard to see in the claims data in recent weeks.
“The volatility has made it very difficult,” he said, to see an economic
effect as the level of claims stays above the 400,000 demarcation line
below which real jobs market improvement can be assumed.

Aside from the recovery, not seasonally adjusted claims could be
expected to gently decline from the beginning of the year, when there
are many refilings for a new benefit year, as well as seasonal retail
and construction layoffs. The next seasonal upturn is usually around the
holidays in mid summer.

The improvement in claims generally “stalled,” he said, through
much of last year after showing a spate of noticeable improvements.
Since September the improvement resumed along a more gradual slope but
now has become mired in week-to-week ups and downs which obscure any
trend.

According to the analyst, seasonal factors had expected a 10.1%
decline in unadjusted claims, about 45,000, in the latest week and
instead there was a 4.4% decline, or about 19,000 which the adjustment
process transformed into the week’s increase. Unadjusted claims were
down 19,271 to 421,713 in the Feb. 12 week and a year ago were 478,235.

The analyst added that only Alaska and Puerto Rico were
estimated in the week by the Labor Department and there were no unusual
weather or other factors in the latest week.

Economists surveyed by Market News International had expected
initial claims to rise to 405,000 in the current week. The previous week
was revised to 385,000.

The seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average rose by 1,750
from the previous week’s revised average of 416,000.

In the Feb. 5 week, continuing claims increased by 1,000 to
3,911,000 after seasonal adjustment. Unadjusted claims continuing
claims fell 62,137 to 4,544,310, well below the 5,597,688 of a
year earlier.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at
3.1% in the Feb. 5 week and was 3.7% a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims dropped by 127,386 in the Jan.
29 week, bringing that category to 3,629,604. Extended benefits claims
rose 42,165 to 873,002.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 9,250,156 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the January 29 week, down 108,468 from
the previous week, also well below the 11,820,222 persons in the
comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally adjusted, and
include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new veterans
claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state additional
benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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