US initial jobless claims and continuing claims
The weekly US initial jobless claims and continuing claims are showing:
- prior week 353K revised to 354K
- initial jobless claims 340K vs expectations of 342K. That is a new post covid low
- 4 week moving average initial jobless claims 355K vs 366.75K last week. New post covid low
- continuing claims 2.748M which is a new post covid low
- 4 week moving average continuing claims 2.855M vs 2.913M last week
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The US monthly jobs report will be released tomorrow. The expectations are for nonfarm payroll to show a 750K increase after the 943K rise last month.
The jobless claim number from a few weeks ago corresponded with the survey week and was at the lowest level since Covid. However the data has been pointing toward a weaker jobs report with ADP surprising to the downside (374K vs 640K estimate), and the ISM manufacturing employment index which moved back below the 50.0 level (contracting).
Today's number muddies the water more for the jobs report tomorrow as it looks pretty good.