By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – U.S. non-manufacturers have begun to add to their
workforces, but only to a limited degree, according to survey chief
Anthony Nieves of the Institute For Supply Management.
“Based on the comments I hear, hiring restrictions are finally
being lifted. Companies are starting to add back but they’re not opening
the flood gates, hiring is slow,” Nieves told MNI in a phone interview.
The report’s employment component rose a solid 1.8 points to 52.7
for the highest reading since December 2007. Employment has now been
over 50 for five of the last seven months.
This component is historically subdued, hitting the 60s only once
in 13 years of data, that in 2005, and trending no higher than the
mid-50s during times of strong hiring.
Nieves suspects it will take another six to nine months before his
employment index hits stride: “Back in the last recession, it took
sometime before the index got to the mid 50s. I think it’ll be the third
quarter before we get there this time.”
Though the report’s composite headline and many of its components
are seasonally adjusted, Nieves suspects that year-end seasonality
nevertheless skewed November higher and may skew December higher.
“I’ll feel better when we get the January report, that is the
report two months from today. That’s the one, for me at least, that will
offer the clearest picture.”
Retailers lead Nieve’s November sample in many categories including
employment, new orders and business activity. But the sub-readings are
unadjusted making conclusions over the relative health of the sector
impossible.
For now, Nieves believes his report is indicating steady and
moderate growth ahead for the overall economy. He sees inventories
adding to November’s build and he sees increasing slowing for deliveries
in the months ahead.
** Market News International New York Newsroom 212-669-6430 **
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$U$$$,M$UEQ$,MAUDS$,MX$$$$]
