Highlights of the July 2019 non-farm payrolls report
- Prior was +224K (revised to +193K)
- Estimates ranged from 74K to 224K
- Two month net revision -41K
- Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.6% expected
- Participation rate 63.0% vs 62.9% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.2% exp
- Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% exp
- Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 exp
- Private payrolls +148K vs +165K exp
- Manufacturing +16K vs +17K prior
- U6 underemployment 7.0% vs 7.2% prior
This is the closest to consensus I can ever remember a non-farm payrolls headline. When you factor in everything else, the good and bad also balance out. The revisions were negative but wage growth was upbeat. Unemployment rose but it was because of higher participation.
