July 2019 US preliminary durable goods orders
Core orders
- Prior was +1.9% (revised to +1.8%)
- Ex transport -0.4% vs +0.0% expected
- Prior ex transport +1.0% (revised to +0.8%)
- Capital goods orders non-defense ex air +0.4% vs +0.0% exp
- Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex air +1.5% (revised to +0.9%)
- Capital goods shipments non-defense ex air -0.7% vs +0.1% exp
The headline is good but the details are less encouraging. Core orders were stronger than expected but the improvement disappears when you factor in the revisions. The drop in shipments will also result in lower Q3 GDP estimates.
Overall, this is probably just noise and revisions are sure to change everything. US investment is mediocre at best right now but there are no signs of deterioration -- or at least there weren't in July. We're still a long ways off from the August data but how businesses react to the fresh rounds of tariffs is what matters now.
