WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is a statement Thursday by the
Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business
William Dunkelberg, on the July job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly
economic survey that will be released on Tuesday August 14, 2012:

“July looked a lot like June in terms of job growth-namely, it was
negative. The reported net change in employment per firm over the past
few months (seasonally adjusted) was -.04; not as poor as June’s -0.11,
but still negative at a time when growth is needed. Readings had been on
the rise; from December to May they were zero or positive, suggesting
that employment might be turning around. But June, and now July, have
ended that possibility.

“Seasonally adjusted, 10 percent of owners surveyed added an
average of 3.0 workers per firm over the past few months, but 11 percent
reduced employment an average of 2.3 workers. The remaining 79 percent
of owners made no net change in employment. Forty-eight (48) percent of
owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months, and 38 percent
(86 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no
qualified applicants for positions. Overall, there was no meaningful job
creation.

“The percent of owners reporting hard to fill job openings held
steady at 15 percent of all owners after falling 5 points in June; May’s
reading was the best in 47 months. Job openings are highly correlated
with the unemployment rate, so July offers little hope of an
improvement.

“Not seasonally adjusted, 11 percent of owners plan to increase
employment at their firm (up 1 point), and nine percent plan reductions,
up 3 points. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners planning to
create new jobs rose 2 points to five percent, a historically weak
reading even if improved from June.

“Not seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners planning to
create new jobs was positive in all industry groups except agriculture
and retailing. Construction was weak, although positive; the strength in
job creation plans was in professional and non-professional services.
Regionally, job creation plans were negative in the Mid-Atlantic and
Mountain states, and strongest in the South Atlantic and Central states
(energy boom).

“On balance, July looks like a repeat of June, few jobs and no
change in the unemployment rate. So far, it has turned out to be a cruel
summer of dashed hopes for meaningful job creation.”

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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