Time to put the pins in on the charts and see what levels could be affected by the data today
USDJPY
Up
- It's no surprise what the first upside level is. 125.00 is it. That will be an instant speck in the rear view mirror on a decent number. I would expected it to go on an 'at the money' number.
- The June highs from 125.70/85 might be made of stronger stuff on a mild beat and being so close to 126.00, that could very well be enough to see a top form.
- If the numbers are super, say 275k+ with unemployment hitting something like 5.1% or 5.0% and a decent pick up in earnings then 126.00 will likely be breached. If it is then we'll need to see support building there or we could see profit taking coming in. Trade a break by all means but watch for any retests of 125.85/70. Move back below there and the rally is likely over for today
- If we do break and hold 126.00 then 130 will be pinging loudly on the radar
Down
- 124.50 was the deciding break point on Wednesday but it's too close to have a say today
- There's nothing really that stands out on the way to 124.00, though we have the 55 & 100 H4 ma's at 124.04/12 but I wouldn't put much faith in them or 124.00 on a decent miss. On or just a touch lower than expected and 124.00 might hold up
- Much stronger will be 123.75 and the 123.51/60, being the 55 dma and an S&R level
- 123.25/30 comes next and 123.00 will be very choice for the dippers
The focus today is much more intense than prior numbers due to the Fed putting a big red mark in the "must do better" column on their jobs report card. A big beat will bring September hawks back in the frame as will a Dec hike. Each report is important now and that increases the risk of seeing bigger and more volatile moves. If you're unsure then wait until the dust settles and see what levels are around. Even with a good number I'd be wary of getting caught in a long trade near the top and heading into the weekend
USDJPY daily chart
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