Earlier: US nonfarm payroll report due Friday - here is a 'just the numbers' preview
- Preview: Why the August non-farm payrolls report is likely to surprise
- Preview from Goldman Sachs on non-farm payrolls
- (this from UBS) Friday is NFP day in the US - preview
More (bolding mine):
Barclays:
- We forecast nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k in the August employment report and for private sector payrolls to rise by 190k.
- The labor force participation rate has moved higher by two-tenths in recent months to 62.9% and has yet to move above 63.0% since March 2014. As a result, we look for solid employment and lack of further near-term upward momentum in participation to lead to a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
- Elsewhere in the report, we expect average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) and for average weekly hours to remain at 34.5.
HSBC:
- So far this year, monthly increases in nonfarm payrolls have averaged 184,000. The underlying pace of growth is probably close to this average.
- However, nonfarm payrolls have often surprised to the downside in August. The outcome has fallen short of consensus expectations for the past six years in a row.
- We look for a 180,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls. We expect that average hourly earnings rose 0.1% m-o-m, leaving the y-o-y rate of increase unchanged at 2.5%. We forecast the unemployment rate was steady at 4.3%.
