US Oil shale outlook from a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast released Wednesday

  • Output peaked at 9.7 million barrels a day in April of 2015
  • Fell to 9.2 million by December 2015
  • Is expected to bottom out at 8.5 million barrels a day in November fo this year

Other forecasters say:

  • Expect US production to fall to 8.2 million barrels a day by the end of 2016
  • With the biggest declines in South Texas's Eagle Ford field (production expected to decline by 15% & North Dakota's Bakken (expected fall of 16%)

via Reuters

They add:

  • The expected decline in U.S. oil production won't be enough to rebalance global markets
  • EIA expects prices to rebound somewhat this year - forecasts West Texas intermediate oil will average $38.54 (U.S.) a barrel in 2016 and $47 next year

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On wider implictions .... comments from Oppenheimer & Co.'s Fadel Gheit:

  • U.S. banks highly exposed to the collapse in the shale industry
  • Banks sitting on a mountain of junk bonds that are fast losing value, but they are reluctant to call loans and put companies out of business for fearing of triggering even larger losses