US retail sales due out at the bottom of the hour
This is the big economic indicator for the week for the US.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch does a great preview of retail sales by using its credit card and debit card spending data. They also forecast a 0.4% rise, ex-autos.
On a sector level, they said fast casual dining sales growth remained strong on an annual basis, while department stores were negative. They're highlight the plunge in oil prices as a risk to consumer spending in Texas while noting that housing-related spending is growing strongly.
If there is an unexpected upside surprise it could be because Amazon Prime Day offered discounts to July 15 (the discounts were a bust but it stimulated spending).
The other line to watch is retail sales ex-autos, gas, and building supplies, which is expected up 0.5%.
