Retail sales expected to fall 0.2%
I tend to think of today's retail sales report as a bit of a free roll. If it's strong it will be seen as a sign the consumer is eager to spending. If it's weak, it will be brushed aside because of covid.
The number to watch is the control group, which is forecast up 0.4% after a 2.5% rise in August. For me, those numbers are curiously high for a covid-hit economy and Bank of America agrees. They're at -0.6% on the headline and -0.5% on the control group. That's not a shot in the dark either, as they're citing their own credit card data.
So even with the chance that a weak number is brushed aside, I think the trade is to be short USD/JPY going in.
