By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON, December 16 (MNI) – The pace of housing starts rose in
November, but was still down sharply from a year earlier. Other home
building data also indicated continued weakness, as the improvement in
new home sales earlier in year seems to have backtracked in recent
months.
The regional manufacturing data released so far suggest expansion.
The Empire State index rebounded in December after the November dip,
while the Philadelphia Fed index rose further after a sizable gain in
November. Other regional data will be released in the coming weeks prior
to the national ISM data scheduled for the first week of the year.
The level of initial jobless claims fell further in the December 11
week, keeping claims on their recent downward trend. Unadjusted claims
fell after their post-holiday run-up in the previous week. The Labor
Department noted that unadjusted claims usually trend higher through
December before hitting their peak in early-January.
Industrial production rose as expected in November, getting a boost
from utilities production as the weather turned cooler. Manufacturing
production was up only modestly in the month, depressed by a sharp drop
in motor vehicle production, while mining production fell. Capacity
utilization rose slightly, but was still low by historical standards.
Consumer prices were up only modestly in November, in contrast to
the sharp gain in producer prices, suggesting the lack of pricing power
at the consumer level is squeezing profit margins.
Retail sales rose sharply in November, their fifth straight gain.
This month, however, they rise without the help of the auto sector,
which posted a decline in November. However, sales at gasoline stations
and for holiday merchandise more than offset the motor vehicle drop,
keeping the outlook for fourth quarter consumption very positive.
Business inventories posted a solid October gain, though retail
inventories fell, offsetting the already announced factory and wholesale
gains.
—
Phila. Federal Reserve Index for December (diffusion index)
Thursday, December 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec10 Nov10 Oct10
Phila Fed 16.0 10.0 to 20.5 14 24.3 22.5 1.0
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index rose to a reading of 24.3 in
December, with the new orders and prices paid and received readings up.
However, there were declines in the readings for shipments, and
employment. The inventory index improved modestly, but was still below
zero indicating contraction.
—
Weekly Jobless Claims for week of December 11
Thursday, December 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 11-Dec 04-Dec 27-Nov
Jobless claims 420k 414k to 435k 14 420k 423k 438k
Comments: Initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 420,000 in the
December 11 week, as expected following a slight upward revision to the
previous week. The four-week moving average for initial claims remained
on its downward trend, falling 5,250 to 422,750 for its sixth
consecutive decline. Continuing claims rose 22,000 to 4.135 million in
the December 4 week, but that following a 164,000 decline in the
previous week.
—
Housing Starts for November (annual rate, million)
Thursday, December 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Starts 550k 520k to 594k 20 555k 534k 601k
Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts rose 3.9%
to 555,000 in November, slightly above expectations and following upward
revisions to the annual rates in the previous two months. Building
permits, however, slipped by 4.0% to a 530,000 annual rate, the lowest
level since April 2009. Housing completions plunged 14.1% to a record
low 513,000. The other data in the pipeline were weak as well, and all
of the key measures showed declines from a year earlier. Overall, the
report showed continuing struggles for the housing market.
—
Industrial Production for November (percent change)
Wednesday, December 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Ind Prod +0.4% -0.1% to +0.8% 20 +0.4% -0.2% +0.1%
Cap Util 75.1% 74.8% to 75.5% 20 75.2% 74.9% 75.1%
Comments: Industrial production rose 0.4% in November, led as
expected by a 1.9% rise in utilities production due to the more
seasonable weather. Manufacturing production rose 0.3%, but would have
been up 0.7% if a 6.0% drop in motor vehicle production was removed.
Mining production fell 0.1%. Capacity utilization rose 0.3 to 75.2%, but
is still low by historical standards.
—
Consumer Price Index for November (percent change)
Wednesday, December 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
CPI +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% 21 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1%
CPI Core +0.1% Unch to +0.1% 20 +0.1% UNCH UNCH
Comments: Consumer prices rose only 0.1% in November, both
including and excluding food and energy. Energy and food both posted
very modest 0.2% gains, while most of the core categories were up only
modestly. New vehicle sales fell 0.4% in the month after seasonal
adjustment, compared with a 0.3% unadjusted rise. Overall CPI was up
only 1.1% year/year, while the core managed only 0.8% rise over that
period. The data are an indication that, despite recent sharp gains in
producer prices, pricing power at the consumer level is very weak.
—
Empire State Index for December (diffusion index)
Wednesday, December 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec10 Nov10 Oct10
Empire Index 5.0 0.0 to 10.0 8 10.57 -11.14 15.73
Comments: The Empire State Index rose to a reading of 10.57 in
December after falling to -11.14 in November, above expectations for a
rise to 5.0. The new orders and shipments readings both returned to
positive territory, but the employment reading fell below zero.
—
Business Inventories for October (percent change)
Tuesday, December 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Inventories +1.0% +0.7% to +1.2% 16 +0.7% +1.3% +0.9%
Comments: October business inventories rose 0.7%, below
expectations of a 1.0% rise because retail inventories fell 0.6% on
strong sales. Retail inventories excluding motor vehicle fell 0.3%, with
motor vehicle inventories down 1.3%. Business inventories excluding
retail auto inventories rose 0.9%. There were inventory declines in
every retail category except clothing and department stores. Business
sales were up 1.4% in October, pulling the inventory/sales ratio down to
1.27, still below the 1.30 ratio a year ago.
—
Retail and Food Sales for November (percent change)
Tuesday, December 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Retail Sales +0.6% +0.3% to +0.9% 21 +0.8% +1.7% +0.9%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.7% +0.4% to +1.1% 21 +1.2% +0.8% +0.8%
Comments: Retail sales rose 0.8% in November despite a 0.8% decline
in motor vehicle and parts sales, as sales excluding motor vehicle were
up a solid 1.2%. There were strong sales increases in a variety of
components, particularly gasoline station sales and at holiday sales
stores such as department stores, clothing stores, and sporting goods
stores. Overall, sales were well above their year ago levels for almost
all of the components, with particular gains in recent months that
should boost 4Q PCE.
—
Producer Price Index for November (percent change)
Tuesday, December 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
PPI +0.7% +0.3% to +1.2% 21 +0.8% +0.4% +0.4%
PPI Core +0.3% -0.1% to +0.8% 21 +0.3% -0.6% +0.1%
Comments: Producer prices jumped 0.8% in November on a 1.0% rise in
food prices and a 2.1% rise in energy prices. Core PPI was up 0.3% on a
1.7% increase in passenger car prices and gains in other key core
components. There also increases at both the intermediate and crude
levels, both including and excluding food and energy prices. The pace of
year/year inflation remains tame, particularly for the core, and with
pricing power weak, there should be little pass through to consumers.
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MTABLE]
