By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON, December 7 (MNI) – Consumer credit use rose again in
October on a further spike in nonrevolving credit. At the same time,
revolving credit use fell for the 26th straight month.
Nonfarm payrolls posted a much smaller increase in November than
analysts had expected, with seasonally adjusted decline in a number of
key sectors, including retail and manufacturing. In addition, the
unemployment rate jumped 0.2 to 9.8%, due to both a decline in household
employment and an inflow of workers into the labor force looking for
work. Hourly earnings were flat and the workweek was unchanged.
The manufacturing sector was a mixed bag in November, with payrolls
down and the workweek week unchanged, with the national ISM survey and
most of the regional surveys pointing to continued growth. Factory
orders fell in October, even excluding a dip in aircraft orders, but
manufacturing production rose solidly, as did shipments.
Outside of manufacturing, the ISM data pointed to further growth,
though the assessment of business activity expansion was a bit slower
than in October.
The level of initial jobless claims rebounded in the November 27
week, as seasonal adjustment factors expected a larger unadjusted
decrease in the Thanksgiving week. Claims remain on their slight
downward trend, with the four-week moving average at the lowest level in
over two years. However, the expiration of benefits is a key factor in
the decline.
Domestic motor vehicle sales were down slightly in November from
October, though the seasonally adjusted annual rate was unchanged at 9.1
million. Dealers discounting to clear out 2010 models appears to have
boosted sales in both months compared to September.
—
Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)
Tuesday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Cons Credit -$2.0b -$5.0b to +$1.5b 15 +$3.4b +$1.2b -$5.0b
Comments: Consumer credit usage rose $3.4 billion in October,
though revolving credit use continued its downward trend with a $5.6
billion decline. Nonrevolving credit use jumped $9.0 billion in the
month on strong auto sales. Nonrevolving credit usage has risen over $19
million in the last three months combined.
—
Factory Orders for October (percent change)
Friday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
New Orders -1.0% -1.5% to -0.3% 9 -0.9% +3.0% Flat
Comments: October factory new orders fell 0.9%, slightly above the
1.0% drop expected. Nondurables orders rose 1.5%, led by petroleum and
coal products, while durables orders were revised up to a 3.4% decline
from the previously reported 3.3% decline. Total factory orders
excluding transportation fell 0.2%. Factory shipments were up 0.3%, with
nondefense capital goods shipments down 0.4% and down 1.3% excluding
aircraft. Factory inventories were up 0.9%, while unfilled orders were
up 0.6%. The inventory-to-shipment ratio rose to 1.28 in October from
1.27 in September.
—
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November
Friday, December 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
ISM NMI 55.0 54.0 to 58.0 10 55.0 54.3 53.2
Comments: The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to a reading of 55.0
in November, as expected, with most of the components up. However, the
business activity index declined, and the reading for prices paid
lower. Still, all of the data categories were above the break even point
of 50.0 this month.
—
Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)
Friday, December 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Payrolls +150k +100k to +200k 11 +39k +172k -24k
Private Jobs +160k +115k to +188k 6 +50k +160k +112k
Jobless Rate 9.6% 9.5% to 9.7% 11 9.8% 9.6% 9.6%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% 11 Flat +0.3% +0.1%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.3 34.3 to 34.3 10 34.3 34.3 34.2
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls rose only 39,000 in November, well below
expectations, on declines in the goods-producing, retail, government,
and financial activities sectors. Private payrolls were up 50,000. The
unemployment rate, which had been 9.6% for three months, jumped to 9.8%
on a sharp decline in household employment and a larger jump in
household unemployment, suggesting that a large number of workers
entered the labor force to look for work before the holidays–and did
not find it. Hourly earnings were flat in November after a 0.3% October
increase, while the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.
—
Weekly Jobless Claims for week of November 27
Thursday, December 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov
Jobless claims 425k 395k to 440k 5 436k 410k 441k
Comments: Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 436,000 in Nov 27
holiday week, above the 425,000 level expected following a dip in the
prior week. The Labor Department analyst said seasonal factors expected
a 16.9% drop, or about 78,698, in unadjusted claims due to the 4-day,
and in some cases 3-day, business week. Actual unadjusted claims fell
only 11.7%, or 54,196, to 410,617. Despite the increase, the 4-week
moving average fell 5,750 to 431,000, the lowest level since the August
2, 2008 week. Continuing claims rose 53,000 to 4.270 million in November
20 week.
—
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar)
Wednesday, December 1 Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Dom Sales 8.9m 8.7m to 9.1m 5 9.1m 9.1m 8.6m
Comments: Domestic-made light vehicle sales held steady at a 9.1
million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, with the pace of
car sales up slightly and the pace of light truck sales down slightly.
Unadjusted sales were actually lower in November than October due to the
short month and seasonal issues, though the average daily selling rate
was up for both cars and light trucks.
—
Construction Spending for October (percent change)
Wednesday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Construction -0.4% -0.8% to +0.4% 8 +0.7% +0.7% -0.9%
Comments: October construction spending rose 0.7%, well above the
0.4% decline expected. There were mixed revisions to the previous two
months. Private residential construction jumped 2.5% in October, though
1-family construction fell 1.2%. Multi-family home building rose 3.2%.
An MNI calculation shows private residential construction excluding new
home building rose 6.2% in October, a second consecutive large gain that
suggests remodeling activity remained solid. Private nonresidential
construction fell 0.7% on declines in almost every category. Public
construction rose 0.4%, with federal spending at a record high.
—
ISM Manufacturing Index for November
Wednesday, December 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Mfg ISM 56.7 55.5 to 57.5 10 56.6 56.9 54.4
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index fell slightly to a reading of
56.6 in November, with declines in the readings for new orders,
production, prices paid, and employment. The data still point to steady
growth that is marginally faster than a year earlier.
—
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Wednesday, December 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 3Q10r 3Q10p 2Q10
Productivity +2.4% +1.9% to +2.6% 11 +2.3% +1.9% -1.8%
Unit Labr Cost Flat -0.9% to +0.1% 10 -0.1% -0.1% +4.9%
Comments: Third quarter nonfarm productivity was revised up to a
2.3% rise on an upward adjustment to output, offset by a modest upward
revision to hours worked. Unit labor costs were unrevised at a 0.1%
decline, as an upward revision to compensation offset the upward
revision to productivity.
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$]
