September 2019 US retail sales data:
- Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.6%)
- Ex autos -0.1% vs ++0.2% expected
- Prior ex autos 0.0% (revised to +0.2%)
- Ex autos and gas 0.0% vs +0.3%
- Prior ex autos and gas +0.1% (revised to +0.4%)
- Control group 0.0% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior control group +0.3% (unrevised)
This is the first decline in seven months and these are poor numbers. The revisions mitigate a bit of the pain but the report hits at a delicate time ahead of the Oct 30 FOMC meeting and will tilt some voters towards supporting a cut.
Guy Lebas from Janney Capital Management highlights that there were many one-off declines in the retail sales report. One was building materials down 1.0% in the month. This was likely due to returns after Hurricane Dorian largely missed Florida. Car sales were also down 0.9%.
