The 100 and 200 day MAs have defined the range for the USDJPY for most of the last month and a half (blue line = 100 day MA, green line = 200 day MA. Those levels come in at the 80.62 and 78.94 respectively.
In between is 80.140 on the topside which is the 38.2% of the move down from the March 15 high to the June 1st low. A move above this level should lead to further upside momentum (and a move to the 100 day MA). A move above the 100 day MA will target 80.91 (50% of move down from March 2012 high) and 81.679 (the 61.8% of the same move down).
On a bearish number, a move below the 79.44 (low close over the last 12 trading days), will be a barometer for a bearish move. Stay below and the price will look toward the 200 day MA at the 78.94 level. A break below the 200 day MA will next look to 78.28 (high area from November to January 2011),a nd then the low from June 1, 2012 at 77.65.
