The USDJPY is being slowed by the 100 day MA at the 79.619 level. The high reached 79.645. The high to low range is 27 pips. Last week, the pair broke out of it’s 3 week strangle hold in the 77.94 to 78.77 area. The price bottomed on Monday (78.15) and closed near the highs (at 79.56). There is room to roam on the upside for the pair with the 38.2% of the move down from the 2012 high coming in at 80.14. Before that level the 80.01 is the 100 week MA and this too will be eyed as a key target to get above. On the downside, the buyers would not be thrilled with a move below the 200 dayMA (green line in the chart). That level comes in at the 79.20. On Friday, traders used the level to base longs against.
The move higher was partly helped last week by better data in the US. Retail sales were higher, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were better. NAHB Housing Market Index was better, Initial Claims held steady near recent lows, Building Permits and Michigan Confidence were higher. Manufacturing in the form of Empire and Philly Fed Index were the only disappointment. With data light this week, the market will be searching for the catalyst. A break above the 100 day MA would give a nice technical reason to extend.
