USD/JPY tech levels 18 April
We seem to be in consolidation mode once again following Kuroda’s first BOJ meeting when the market acknowledged that maybe he did have a bazooka rather than a spud gun. On the longer term charts (daily, weekly & monthly) the ma’s are nowhere to be seen except the 100 ma on the monthly chart (currently at 98.20. Since falling from the 100 high to the 95.75 lows we’ve not managed to hold above this line in any meaningful way. If we can close the month above it would point to a sustained push to the upside. The 100 level is still a very big psychological level and if this blows then we should be off to the races. Adam previously alluded to placing a buy stop above 100 and I think that is still a very good strategy to play. If the G20 more or less reiterates it’s stance regarding Japan then we could see another challenge of the level.
Looking at the H4 chart the only meaningful fib level we have in realistic play is the 61.8 from the April lo/hi at 95.38. The 38.2 & 50 were smoked without getting a look in which is a timely reminder that in very volatile markets tech levels should not be relied on in lower time scaled charts. Since the 95’s lows we’ve also struggled to get above the 55 ma. Again this has shown that in normal market volatility levels can be used to define ranges. It’s currently capped todays high at 98.50 while below we have the 100 ma at 96.52 and the 200 way down at 95.76
Coming down to the H1 chart the 55 ma is looking to cross the 100 ma around the 97.90-98.00 level and should offer some decent support. Above we have the 200 ma at 98.62.
So US econ figures aside, I think the market is going to be looking to the G20 meeting before making it’s next move. Any disparaging remarks towards Japanese policy could have the pair declining rapidly in knee jerk fashion. If they maintain the party line we could see a nice move up with the 100 level entering the cross hairs once more.
