- Too early to draw conclusion that everything is behind us.
- Will be 2013 until return to prior levels of growth.
- 2010 projections may be revised upward
- Germany has never seen sustained recovery that is not export driven; don’t see big improvement in demand
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That last point of Weber’s is probably the most important, and the prime reason why I’m skeptical of a strong global recovery. The emerging markets alone cannot absorb sufficient European exports to sustain recovery. The US will need to play a key role and the consumer remains extremely reluctant to spend, and will remain so until employment prospects improve dramatically.
