Sean Callow at Westpac on Fonterra a little earlier.

Key points:

  • Our NZ economists' forecast for the 2015/16 milk price is NZD4.30, but with global dairy prices up nearly 50% from their recent lows, the risks to this clearly lie to the upside (we will formally review our forecast after next week's dairy auction)
  • This is a key reason why we expect the RBNZ will decide to keep the OCR on hold at its October meeting before resuming cuts in December.

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The October Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is shaping up as a very close call indeed.

WPAC says on hold after this morning's Fonterra announcement.

The latest from CBA (again, after the announcement this morning) , on the other hand say they are still forecasting an RBNZ cut, adding that it's a close call