Westpac's latest on AUD/USD, still targeting 0.6700 by year-end:

  • AUD/USD has closed within a 0.6700-0.6900 range every day since late July.
  • The mid-October bounce has been aided by a more positive tone on US-China trade talks but probably won't be more durable than the early September rally. Iron ore prices are rolling over on patchy demand and resilient supply, while we believe the US and China still have major hurdles which will keep tariffs in place.
  • Limiting downside though, we expect the RBA to hold steady into 2020 as it remains hopeful on Australia's growth outlook and spec short A$ positioning is substantial. Any near-term probes above 0.6900 should attract sellers, with our year-end target still 0.6700.