A week or so ago I warned you to ignore the hype that tends to come up around The 15th of February and the 15th of July when loads of Treasury issues mature and coupons are paid….
Invariably some weeny analyst at some bank somewhere puts out a piece saying that Japanese investors will repatriate 4022 bazillion dollars worth on interest and maturing deals and USD/JPY will therefore drop like a stone…. Funny thing is, it never happens.
Investors are smarter than the average PhD analyst. If they are going to repatriate, they do it via forwards…they don’t wait until the spot date to dump the dollars. Moreoften than not, they just roll the dollars over into new bonds…It’s not like the US is runnin’ out of them…
So here we are on the coupon date, at the highest level in USD/JPY in two months. Score another one for the dinosaurs.
