What has changed since September

The Federal Reserve releases economic projections quarterly. The most-recent release was in September. Here is how the numbers have changed.

Key numbers to watch:

  • Core PCE inflation for 2018
  • Central tendency on Fed funds rate for 2018 and 2019
  • 2018 GDP
  • 2018 unemployment rate

September numbers:

From the latest report:

The quick take is that the Fed dots haven't moved higher with the Fed funds projected rates the same in 2018 and 2019. Then up to 3.1% from 2.9% in 2020. There were hopes of a more-hawkish signal.

Another surprise is the 2018 PCE projection. The media is the same but the central tendency ticked down.

The good news is that the media on growth for 2018 rose to 2.5% from 2.1%.