UK lawmakers/parliament is back in action starting from today
And they will be debating on May's Brexit deal starting from this Wednesday with the meaningful vote expected to be scheduled some time before 21 January. Currently, the likely dates as reported last week by The Times are for 15 or 16 January for the meaningful vote.
The situation at hand now is that Theresa May is still seeking concessions from European leaders on the backstop. She wants to get legal assurances, to appease parliament, that there will be a fixed end date to the backstop but so far, lawmakers in the European Union are only willing to offer her "clarifications" to the agreed deal.
With both parties still shooting from two different angles, it's hard to imagine a scenario where May's Brexit deal is able to gather enough votes to win over parliament. That means some form of delay in either the meaningful vote or Brexit itself is looking increasingly likely by the day.
That form of uncertainty bodes ill for the pound's near-term outlook as any delay will further weigh on the UK economy - more than it already has over the past year. Other potential options include a second referendum being called, a general election, or an outright step towards a no-deal outcome. ING has a good summary of the probabilities of those scenarios below:
