Focus down to a few states
Betting odds have shifted dramatically in Biden's favour in the past few hours and now give him a 77% chance of winning compared to 23% for Trump. PredictIt has it 79-30 for Biden, with its usual wide spread.
Markets have shifted in the same way. The Mexican peso erased all the overnight losses, stock futures are higher, the dollar gave back gains and gold is flat again.
On the ground, Arizona looks like Biden has it and with that he only needs Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Georgia and Pennsylvania are other options but Biden doesn't need them.
Michigan
Trump's lead has evaporated in the past two hours and that's why the odds have shifted. Biden is now leading 49.2% to 49.1% The remaining vote is largely urban and mail-in, which has been tilting heavily towards Biden and should add to his lead.
Wisconsin
Biden has pulled ahead 49.5%-48.8% in Wisconsin with 97% of the estimated votes counted. The remainder are mail-in and urban which should add to the lead.
Nevada
Biden is up 49.3% to 48.7% but it's a small state and that's only 86% of the vote. Democrats are optimistic but Clark county (Las Vegas) mail-in votes are still to come and those should add to Biden's lead.
Georgia
Trump leads 50.5%-48.3% here but betting markets show a dead head. That's because only 92% of the votes have been counted and the remainder are mail-in and in Atlanta; both of which are likely to be heavily Democrat.
Pennsylvania
Trump is up 55.1-43.6%. That looks like a huge lead but only 75% of the votes have been counted and the remainder is urban and mail-in. Biden needs to win those by a huge margin but so far he has been.
